Seismic Shifts: How Earthquake Risk Impacts Property Appreciation in Vulnerable Zones - A Data-Driven Analysis

Does earthquake risk influence property values? This analysis delves into the relationship between seismic activity and real estate market dynamics in various cities, exploring whether the inherent risk is already factored into property prices or if opportunities exist for savvy investors.

Understanding the Risk Landscape

We begin by examining the risk profiles of several cities across the United States. Our data reveals a wide range of risk index scores and hazard vulnerabilities. For example, Dallas, FL, exhibits a high-risk profile with a risk index score of 95. This score reflects the combined threat from various hazards, including an earthquake hazard score of 83.

In contrast, San Antonio, TN, presents a significantly lower risk index score of 80. While still facing threats from floods (26), wildfires (43), hurricanes (29), and tornadoes (55), its earthquake hazard score is only 16, contributing to its lower overall risk profile.

Comparing Cities: Risk and Population

Comparing cities based on their risk index scores and population provides valuable insights. Phoenix, CA, boasts a high-risk index score of 97, coupled with a substantial population of 802416. This suggests a large population exposed to considerable risk, with an earthquake hazard score of 73.

Orlando, GA, on the other hand, has a risk index score of 78 and a population of 291335. While its overall risk is lower than Phoenix, it faces a higher flood risk, indicated by a score of 92, but a lower earthquake hazard score of 34.

Austin, GA, presents another interesting case. With a risk index score of 71 and a large population of 841288, it's vulnerable to various hazards. Notably, its earthquake hazard score is 85, which is relatively high compared to other cities with similar overall risk scores.

Exploring Additional Cities and Their Risk Profiles

Expanding our analysis, we examine another set of cities to further understand the relationship between risk and real estate. Denver, CO, appears twice in our dataset, showcasing different risk profiles. One Denver location has a risk index score of 59, while another has a significantly higher score of 99. The earthquake hazard scores for these two locations are 80 and 22, respectively, highlighting the variability within the same city.

Another San Antonio, this time in FL, has a very low risk index score of 11. Its earthquake hazard score is 16, contributing to its low overall risk profile. The population of this San Antonio is 516252.

Nashville, CA, presents a risk index score of 89, with an earthquake hazard score of 89. Its population is 693152.

Finally, Atlanta, FL, has a risk index score of 80 and an earthquake hazard score of 48. Its population is 1029821.

Data Table: City Hazard Summary

City	State	Risk Index Score	Population	Earthquake Hazard	Flood Hazard	Wildfire Hazard	Hurricane Hazard	Tornado Hazard
San Antonio	TN	80	268245	16	26	43	29	55
Dallas	FL	95	172937	83	57	54	68	88
Phoenix	CA	97	802416	73	74	69	21	61
Orlando	GA	78	291335	34	92	54	25	20
Austin	GA	71	841288	85	59	27	84	46
Denver	CO	59	232742	80	98	82	88	79
Denver	CO	99	937693	22	60	66	73	28
San Antonio	FL	11	516252	16	24	26	3	38
Nashville	CA	89	693152	89	81	13	57	27
San Antonio	TN	12	314867	40	77	3	11	5
Atlanta	FL	80	1029821	48	89	70	75	20

Conclusion

This preliminary analysis reveals a complex relationship between earthquake risk and overall risk profiles in various cities. Further investigation is needed to determine the direct impact of earthquake risk on property appreciation rates. Factors such as local building codes, insurance availability, and community awareness also play significant roles in shaping market dynamics. By understanding these factors, investors can make informed decisions and potentially identify opportunities in seismically active regions.